The study, published in the Lancet Public Health journal, analysed the projected health needs of the elderly in England between 2015 and 2035.
It found that the number of 65-year-olds and over needing round-the-clock care is also set to rise by a third.
The government says adult social care reforms will be set out in the autumn.
The modelling study, carried out by Newcastle University and the London School of Economics and Political Science, highlighted the fact that the fastest growing demographic in the UK is elderly people over 85, whose numbers are projected to more than double by 2035, increasing by 1.5 million.
Many of these elderly will develop multiple long-term health conditions, such as dementia and diabetes, leading to increasingly complex care needs.
The number of over-85s requiring help throughout the day with tasks such as dressing, bathing and going to the toilet is estimated to almost double to 446,000 by 2035.
By the same time, the experts predict that a million over-65s will need similar 24-hour care.
Prof Carol Jagger, from the Newcastle University Institute for Ageing and senior author of the study, said the number of unpaid carers is in decline. She warned that relying on unpaid family carers was not sustainable and said: “The challenge is considerable.
“Our study suggests that older spouse carers are increasingly likely to be living with disabilities themselves. “On top of that, extending the retirement age of the UK population is likely to further reduce the informal carer pool, who have traditionally provided for older family members.”
Investment
Nick Forbes, senior vice-chair of the Local Government Association, warned that more investment was needed to avoid a crisis. “Adult social care services face a £3.5bn funding gap by 2025, just to maintain existing standards of care,” he said.
“The system is at breaking point, ramping up pressures on unpaid carers. “There is an urgent need to plug the immediate funding gap and find a long-term solution to how we pay for adult social care.”
The study also noted that there were increasing numbers of adults aged over 65 living independently, with a rise of 60% forecast by 2035.
However, as they got older men were more likely to remain independent, whereas women will spend almost half of their remaining life with low dependency needs and more years needing intensive 24-hour care.
The researchers categorised elderly people’s care needs as high dependency if they need round-the-clock care, medium dependency if they need help at regular times daily, or low-dependency if they require support less than daily and are generally looked after in the community.
Focus on disabling conditions
Prof Jagger said this highlighted the importance of focusing on disabling long-term conditions, such as arthritis, that were more common in women than men.
“The rise in obesity is hitting women harder than men, and men have probably benefitted more from the reductions in cardiovascular disease.
“Women also suffer from a decline in muscle mass, and so I am stressing the importance of physical activity and maintaining strength and balance.”
She added: “This expanding group will have more complex care needs that are unlikely to be met adequately without improved co-ordination between different specialties.”
The report also predicts that the number of people aged over 65 with dementia and at least two other diseases will double by 2025 and treble by 2035.
Summary
This study published in the Lancet Public Health journal highlights the challenge faced by governments regardless of their political persuasion in meeting the future care needs of people in England. The study found that the fastest growing demographic in the UK is elderly people over 85, whose numbers are projected to more than double by 2035, increasing by 1.5 million. Many of these people will develop multiple long-term health conditions such as dementia and diabetes, leading to increasingly complex care needs.
Despite government platitudes claiming additional funding has been made to the social care sector, those who work in the industry know that this level of investment is no more than a sticking plaster measure. What is needed is real investment now and, in the future, along with a strategy that addresses the complex care needs of people who are living longer. To rely on the valuable contribution made by carers is unsustainable.
Albert Cook BA, MA & Fellow Charted Quality Institute Managing Director Bettal Quality Consultancy